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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Oct 04 1258 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Oct 2024	330	033
05 Oct 2024	329	049
06 Oct 2024	327	079

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was very high over the past 24 hours, with an X-class flare and 7 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was an X9.0 flare (SIDC Flare 2210) peaking on Oct 03 at 12:18 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Regions 3823, 3842). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 257; AR 3823, 3842) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC 257 and SIDC 273 (NOAA AR 3844) have beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and were growing over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 12:48 UTC on Oct 03. This CME was associated with an X9.0 flare, which peaked at 12:18 UTC on Oct 03, produced by the SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA AR 3842, S15 W03). Associated type IV and type II radio emissions were detected at 12:17 UTC and 12:18 UTC, respectively, during this flaring activity. The EUV wave was also observed. It has a projected speed of about 850 km/s. With its source region located closer to the central meridian, it is expected to impact the Earth on Oct 05-06. Another CME was observed in C2 images at 13:37 UTC on Oct 03, on the NE limb. This CME was possibly associated to an eruption near the SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA AR 3848). It has a projected width of about 104 degree and a projected speed of about 500 km/s (as detected by CACTUS tool). With the bulk of the mass strongly directed towards the NE, it will mostly miss the Earth, but a glancing blow may be possible on Oct 06. Third CME was observed in C2 images at 20:36 UTC on Oct 03, on the West limb. It was associted with a M6.7 flare, which peaked at 20:28 UTC on Oct 03, produced by the SIDC Sunspot Group 272 (NOAA AR 3843, S07 W45). Associated type II radio emissions were detected at 20:12 UTC, during this flaring activity. The associated EUV wave was also observed. It has a projected width of about 106 degree and a projected speed of about 645 km/s (as detected by CACTUS tool). It may impact the Earth on Oct 06-07. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged from 300 km/s to 450 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 3 nT to 9 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -7 to 7 nT. We expect enhanced solar wind parameters in the next 24 hours due to the possible arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME), associated with a CME that was observed lifting from the Sun on Oct 01.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K_BEL 1 to 3). We expect active to major storm conditions (K 4 to 7) in the next 24 hours due to the possible arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME), associated with a CME that was observed lifting from the Sun on Oct 01.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 214, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	296
10cm solar flux	312
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	216 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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