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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Sep 28 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Sep 2024	186	007
29 Sep 2024	188	016
30 Sep 2024	190	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C6.3 from SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA AR 3839), peaking at 15:35 UTC on 27 September. This AR, currently located at S14E63, has a Beta magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

Корональні діри

SIDC Coronal Hole 65, a small negative polarity coronal hole, crossed central meridian on 26 September, a HSS may be expected at the Earth on 29 September.

Сонячний вітер

The Earth is inside a slow solar wind stream, with speeds around 320 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field of about 8 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours, a mild high speed solar wind stream can be expected after that.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet both locally and globally (K_Bel and Kp up to 2). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels, and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels, and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 158, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	183
10cm solar flux	186
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	163 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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