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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Sep 27 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Sep 2024	181	007
28 Sep 2024	183	007
29 Sep 2024	185	016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.4 one from NOAA AR 3839, peaking at 23:12 UTC on 26 September. This AR is rotating into view over the east limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours. A partial halo CME with angular width around 150 degrees erupted on 26 September, first seen by LASCO C2 at 09:12 UTC. This event is backsided and will not arrive to the Earth.

Корональні діри

A small negative polarity coronal hole crossed central meridian on 26 September, a HSS may be expected at the Earth on 29 September.

Сонячний вітер

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds around 360 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field of about 5 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 48 hours.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet both locally and globally (K_Bel and Kp from 1 to 3). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels, and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 went slightly above the 1000 pfu threshold on 25 September, while it remained below it in GOES 16. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels, and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 162, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	184
10cm solar flux	181
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	144 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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