Перегляд архіву четвер, 24 жовтня 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Oct 24 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Oct 2024	187	017
25 Oct 2024	189	007
26 Oct 2024	191	037

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity reached high levels, with several C-class flares and one M-class flare and one X-class flare recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an X3.3 flare (SIDC Flare 2382) peaking on October 24 at 03:57 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Regions 3869). There are currently six numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Regions 3869; beta-gamma) was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 275 (NOAA Active Region 3863; beta-gamma) and SIDC Sunspot Group 244 (NOAA Active Region 3866; beta). SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3859) is approaching the west limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares likely and a M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

A fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph data starting at around 03:48 UTC on October 24. The CME is directed primarily to the southeast from Earth's perspective and is associated with the X3.3 flare from NOAA AR 3869, along with Type II and Type IV radio emissions detected at 03:46 UTC on October 24. The CME has an estimated velocity exceeding 1300 km/s. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow could potentially arrive on October 26. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind data from ACE and DSCOVR remained under the waning influence of the high-speed stream (HSS), but is gradually returning to slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) decreased from 9 nT to 4 nT, while the solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s and 420 km/s. The southward component of the IMF fluctuated between -6 nT and 7 nT. The IMF phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Solar wind conditions are expected to return to a slow solar wind regime in the next 24 hours. On October 26-27, solar wind parameters may become slightly elevated due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole that began crossing the central meridian on October 22, along with the possible arrival of an ICME.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium (K-BEL: 2 to 3), while globally, active levels were reached between 03:00 and 09:00 UTC on October 24 (NOAA Kp: 1 to 4+). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Unsettled conditions, with possible isolated active and minor storm periods, are expected on October 26-27 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream and the possible arrival of an ICME.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 140, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	159
10cm solar flux	185
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	119 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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