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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Nov 06 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Nov 2024	249	008
07 Nov 2024	247	011
08 Nov 2024	243	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 7 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M5.86 flare peaking on November 06 at 08:50 UTC, which was produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3887. A newly emerged active region in the north-west quadrant of the Sun. The second largest flare was a M4.19 flare peaking on November 05 at 15:26 UTC, which was associated with an AR just over the west limb. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883) is the most magnetically complex active region (beta-gamma-delta) on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA Active Region 3887 and 3888 have emerged on disk in the northwest quadrant of the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 306 (NOAA Active Region 3885) is about to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analyses of the CMEs observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 17:24 UTC on November 04 shows that no impact from this CME is expected at Earth.

Корональні діри

A negative polarity high-latitude coronal hole has started to transition the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. A positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole has started to transition the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive to Earth around November 09.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 10 nT with a minimum Bz of -8 nT. The solar wind velocity varied between 420 and 489 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to gradually return to the slow solar wind regime over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally and globally quite to unsettled (Kp 1-3 and K BEL 1-3). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 196, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Nov 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	245
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	214 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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