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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Dec 03 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Dec 2024	184	017
04 Dec 2024	184	012
05 Dec 2024	186	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C6.1 flare (SIDC Flare 2783), peaking at 05:44 UTC on December 3, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3906; beta- gamma). There are currently seven numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3906) and SIDC Sunspot Group 322 (NOAA Active Region 3905; beta) are currently approaching the west limb. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912; beta-gamma), SIDC Sunspot Group 329 (NOAA Active Region 3915; beta), and by active regions behind the east limb. Other regions on the disk did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance of M-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered an ICME arrival, likely related to the partial halo CME first detected in LASCO/C2 data around 19:24 UTC on November 27. The interplanetary magnetic field reached values up to 14 nT, and the solar wind speed increased from about 350 km/s to 450 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -13 nT and 11 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated on December 3 under the ongoing ICME influence. From December 4, the solar wind parameters are expected to gradually return to a slow wind regime.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours globally registered an active period between 00:00 and 03:00 UTC on December 3 (NOAA Kp: 4-). Locally, over Belgium, only quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed (K-Bel: 1 to 3). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. There is a small chance that the proton flux may increase in case of strong flaring from SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3906).

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 128, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Dec 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	185
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	136 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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