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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Jan 04 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
04 Jan 2025192034
05 Jan 2025185040
06 Jan 2025180025

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours with 1 X-class flare and 5 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3188) with peak time 22:41 UTC January 03. This was produced by SIDC Sunspot group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947). This region also produced the 5 M-class flares including an M7.6 flare (SIDC Flare 3195), peaking at 05:18 UTC January 04. SIDC Sunspot Group 356 (NOAA Active Region 3943) grew over the period and produced C-class flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 363 (NOAA Active Region 3949) also continued to emerge. The remain regions were quiet and stable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and X-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Сонячний вітер

The interplanetary magnetic field showed a decreasing trend on January 03, reducing from 14 to 7 nT. From 23:30 January 03, the magnetic field then began to increase in strength again with a maximum of 18nT. Bz became mostly negative after 02:00 UTC January 04 with a minimum value of -15 nT. From 23:30 UTC January 03, the solar wind speed also gradually increased from 400 km/s to 550 km/s around 04:00 UTC January 04. This is possibly due to the glancing blow arrival of the CME observed on January 01 and a high-speed stream arrival. The solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on January 04 and 05 due to the ongoing CME effects and high-speed streams associated with the positive polarity SIDC Coronal Holes 60 and 82, which began to cross the central meridian on December 31 and January 01, respectively.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5, local K Bel 4). Unsettled to minor storm conditions are expected for January 04 and 05, due to combined high speed stream and CME effects.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to the high flaring potential, particularly from SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active region 3936).

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 215, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Jan 2025

Wolf number Catania169
10cm solar flux200
AK Chambon La Forêt014
AK Wingst010
Estimated Ap009
Estimated international sunspot number207 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxКінецьLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
03215422122227N11E57M2.31N82/3947
03223222412251N10E61X1.1182/3947II/2
03231423242333N10E56M1.9SF82/3947
03235023560005N10E56M5.8182/3947
04003400360041N10E56M1.5182/3947
04045805180527N10E56M7.61N82/3947

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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