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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Feb 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Feb 2025	169	025
14 Feb 2025	171	018
15 Feb 2025	173	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with one M-class flare and multiple C-class flares. The largest flare was an M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3593) peaking at 11:09 UTC on February 13, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 399 (NOAA Active Region 3992). There are currently seven numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Group 346 and 399 (NOAA Active Regions 3990 and 3992), both of magnetic type beta- gamma. SIDC Sunspot Group 399 (NOAA Active Region 3992) has emerged near the central meridian, east of SIDC Sunspot Group 378 (NOAA Active Region 3986, magnetic type alpha). SIDC Sunspot Group 396 (NOAA Active Region 3987) and SIDC Sunspot Group 397 (NOAA Active Region 3988) have decayed into plage. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Корональні діри

The southern, low-latitude, negative-polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) still resides on the central meridian.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions (ACE & DSCOVR) were enhanced during the last 24 hours, still under the declining influence of the high-speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88) and possibly the arrival of the high-speed stream from the southern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87). Speed values initially decreased from around 520 km/s to 430 km/s and then started to increase up to around 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values increased from 5 nT to 8 nT. The Bz component varied between -7 nT and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24-48 hours, due to the influence of the high-speed stream from the southern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87).

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally were initially at unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3) over the last 24 hours and then increased to active levels (NOAA Kp 4) around 03:00 UTC on February 13. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached active conditions between 15:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC, and then between 20:00 UTC and 22:00 UTC on February 12. Mostly unsettled to active conditions, with a chance of minor storm intervals (NOAA Kp 5, K Bel 5) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, in response to the arrival of a high-speed stream from the southern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was above the threshold level between 12:00 UTC on February 12 and 00:45 UTC on February 13. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was above the threshold level between 15:30 UTC on February 12 and 02:10 UTC on February 13. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at moderate levels and is expected to gradually decrease to normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 099, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Feb 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	087 - Based on 06 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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