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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Feb 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Feb 2025	175	017
15 Feb 2025	177	016
16 Feb 2025	179	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with two M-class flares and multiple C-class flares. The largest flares were an M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3599) peaking at 02:28 UTC on February 14 from beyond the east limb and an M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3601) peaking at 10:06 UTC on February 14, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3990, magnetic type beta- gamma). There are currently nine numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Group 346 and 399 (NOAA Active Regions 3990 and 3992), both of magnetic type beta-gamma. SIDC Sunspot Group 402 (NOAA Active Region 3993, magnetic type alpha) has rotated on disk from the east limb, in the northeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Group 401 (NOAA Active Region 3994, magnetic type beta) has emerged east of the central meridian, in the southeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Group 403 (NOAA Active Region 3995, magnetic type beta) has emerged west of the central meridian, in the southwest quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares probable.

Корональні викиди маси

A prominence eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 data around 02:25 UTC on February 14 in the southeast limb, but no associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been clearly identified in the available coronagraph imagery. A faint CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 08:45 UTC on February 14, lifting of the southeast quadrant. Preliminary analysis suggests that it is not going to impact the Earth. Further analysis of the event is ongoing. No Earth- directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Корональні діри

The southern, low-latitude, negative-polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) still resides on the central meridian.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions (DSCOVR) were enhanced during the last 24 hours, under the influence of the high-speed stream from the southern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87). Speed values ranged between 450 km/s and 550 km/s approximately. The interplanetary magnetic field values were between 6 nT and 10 nT. The Bz component varied between -9 nT and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24-48 hours, due to the influence of the high-speed stream from the southern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87).

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 4- to 4+) over the last 24 hours and reached minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5-) between 00:00 UTC and 03:00 UTC on February 14. Geomagnetic conditions locally were initially at unsettled levels (K Bel 3) and reached active levels (K Bel 4) mainly between 19:00 UTC and 22:00 UTC on February 13. Mostly unsettled to active conditions (NOAA Kp 3-4, K Bel 3-4), with a chance of minor storm intervals (NOAA Kp 5, K Bel 5) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, in response to the high-speed stream from the southern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was above the threshold level between 14:00 UTC and 19:15 UTC on February 13 and 02:40 UTC and 04:15 on February 14. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was above the threshold level between 15:50 UTC on February 13 and 01:30 UTC on February 14. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at moderate levels and is to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 140, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Feb 2025

Wolf number Catania	148
10cm solar flux	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	022
Estimated Ap	024
Estimated international sunspot number	107 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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