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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Apr 13 1301 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Apr 2025	164	014
14 Apr 2025	162	015
15 Apr 2025	164	047

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at high levels with seven M-class flares registered. A total of 6 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4055), currently located at N08W68, remained the largest and most complex active region. It was classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta and contributed to most of the observed flaring activity, including the an M2.3 flare (SIDC Flare 4100) with peak time at 12:40 UTC on April 12. Other notable sunspot groups contributing to the observed flaring activity are SIDC Sunspot Group 468 (NOAA Active Region 4054) near the west limb and SIDC Sunspot Group 470 (NOAA Active Region 4058) currently located at N18W71. Both regions are classified as magnetic type beta and have exhibited some growth. The solar flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at moderate to high levels with very likely M-class flaring and 20% chances for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A long filament crossing the central meridian to the east of the disc center has erupted around 23:00 UTC on April 12. An associated south-eastward wide coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in the LASCO/C2 and C3 imagery. The possible impact on Earth related to this eruption is currently being analysed. A neighbouring filament eruption to the south of SIDC Sunspot Group 398 (NOAA Active Region 4056) has occurred in the early UTC morning on April 13. An associated fast partial halo CME was visible in LASCO/C2 data around 08:24 UTC. The CME is expected to reach the Earth. Further analysis for the expected arrival time is ongoing, possibly as early as April 15th.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected an influence of a high speed stream (HSS) from a negative polarity coronal hole. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (B) reached a maximum value of 10.4 nT with a minimum Bz of -9.3 nT. The solar wind speed varied between 400 km/s and 600 km/s. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain mildly enhanced over the next 24 hours under the influence of the ongoing HSS. Stronger enhancements might be expected on April 15 with possible mixed ICME/HSS arrivals. Any mild connection to the high speed stream associated to the two compact positive polarity coronal holes, which recently crossed the central meridian will most probably be mixed with the expected ICMEs in the situ solar wind signatures.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours globally registered an isolated minor storm, while locally over Belgium only quiet to active conditions were observed. Predominantly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with small chances for isolated minor storm levels. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for April 14 with possible isolated active periods. Preliminary analysis suggests that moderate to major geomagnetic conditions might be expected on April 15th with a possible ICME arrival.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours with possible enhancements in the upcoming days related to the increased levels of flaring activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 18 electron fluxes has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and might briefly exceed the threshold again in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at the border of moderate to nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 099, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Apr 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	165
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	019
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	115 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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