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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Apr 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Apr 2025	162	007
15 Apr 2025	160	016
16 Apr 2025	157	045

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been high, with five M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M4.2 flare peaking at 06:50 UTC on April 14, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4055, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). There are currently five numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 469, currently rotating behind the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 470 (NOAA Active Region 4058, magnetic type beta) is also rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A prominence eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 data around 17:00 UTC on April 13, in the northeast limb. A narrow, associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 data lifting off around 18:00 UTC on April 13. It is not expected to impact Earth. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 data around 23:00 UTC on April 13, south of SIDC Sunspot Group 450 (NOAA Active Region 4060). No associated CME was observed in the available coronagraph imagery. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) are gradually returning to the slow solar wind regime, under the waning influence of the elongated, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) that first crossed the central meridian on April 07. Speed values decreased from 500 km/s to around 440 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were between 3 nT and 8 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative, with values varying between -7 nT and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, in case of the early arrival of the interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) associated with the CME that lifted off around 23:00 UTC on April 12 and the partial halo CME that lifted off around 08:30 UTC on April 13. A mild high-speed stream from SIDC Coronal Hole 101 may arrive at Earth starting from April 15, but may be indistinguishable from the ICMEs.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3), reaching active levels (NOAA Kp 4+) between 03:00 UTC and 06:00 UTC on April 14. Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at unsettled levels (K BEL 3), reaching active levels (K BEL 4) between 07:00 UTC and 08:00 UTC on April 14. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, with a chance for moderate storm intervals due to the possible early arrival of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) associated with the CME that lifted off around 23:00 UTC on April 12 and the partial halo CME that lifted off around 08:30 UTC on April 13.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity from SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4055, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta).

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was above the threshold level between 17:00 UTC and 23:50 UTC on April 13. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 was close to the threshold level but remained below it in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain mostly below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 079, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Apr 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	098 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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