Sunspot region 2422, M-class solar flares

Sunday, 27 September 2015 23:48 UTC

Looking at sunspot region 2422 right now we see that there are two delta structures (indicated by arrows on the image at the end of this article) but these delta sunspots do seem to be drifting towards the east and away from the leading sunspot cluster into the intermediate area. This means the delta structures are becoming less compact which would decrease the chance for strong solar flares. There is however a catch: there is an above average amount of movement within this group as well as some growth making it hard to analyse this region right now as it can look very different in a few hours time.

However, purely by what we are seeing right now with the two delta sunspots and all the other spots moving around so much we can expect unstable magnetic fields within this group which means solar flares remain likely. M-class activity in the next 24 hours is likely (R1-R2) with a very slight chance for an X-class (R3 or greater) event. Should this sunspot region erupt in the next 24 hours, there is a good chance that the resulting plasma cloud (coronal mass ejection) has an earth-directed component.

M-class flare probability for the coming 24 hours: 60% chance
X-class flare probability for the coming 24 hours: 10% chance

Image: Sunspot region 2422 as seen by NASA SDO.