Evolution of sunspot region 2192

Sunday, 26 October 2014 21:32 UTC

Evolution of sunspot region 2192

Sunspot region 2192 was relatively stable since our last update but did loose some penumbral area in it's intermediate layout. However, there remains a strong delta structure near the large trailer spot that even seems to try to penetrate the large trailer spot. This likely causes the high X-ray flux that we are seeing right now and we can conclude that sunspot region 2912 remains magnetically complex enough for more strong solar flares. We are slightly raising the chances for strong solar flares because of the development in the trailing delta structure which is tightly packed and likely to give more fireworks. The risk for more M-class (R1+R2) solar flares in the next 24 hours is very high and an X-class (R3) event also remains possible. We do need to note that sunspot region 2192 is now slowly rotating away from Earth and any eruptions will be less likely to hit Earth as time passes. A strong eruption from sunspot region 2192 could also cause a solar radiation storm which would impact HF radio communications at arctic latitudes.

All the other sunspot regions on the disk are unremarkable. Any future solar flares will very likely be centered around sunspot region 2192.

Solar flare odds for the coming 24 hours

M-class flare probability: 90% chance
X-class flare probability: 30% chance

Images: NASA SDO and Sajad Sayadi.