M1.6 solar flare, G2 storm watch

Sunday, 10 October 2021 15:17 UTC

A preliminary look at the eruption from the M1.6 solar flare with the help of SDO and STCE/SIDC.

We see a gorgeous eruption which very likely launched an earth-directed CME into space. More info will come later when coronagraph imagery becomes available. pic.twitter.com/1aCUAQGILK

— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) October 9, 2021

A fantastic full halo coronal mass ejection became visible as seen by SOHO/LASCO, the coronagraph imager watching coronal mass ejections as they leave the Sun as seen from Earth's perspective. The gorgeous full halo signature shows us the expanding cloud as it travels away from the Sun, towards Earth. There is not a shadow of a doubt that this cloud of solar plasma will arrive at Earth. The only question is when will it arrive and how strong will the geomagnetic storm become?

Coronagraph imagery is starting to trickle in showing the impressive CME launched during the M1.6 solar flare.

A full halo CME was launched which will certainly arrive at Earth within the next 48 to 72 hours. Geomagnetic storm conditions will be highly likely. More info later, pic.twitter.com/wURl4YHYf4

— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) October 9, 2021

The American space weather service, the NOAA SWPC expects the M1.6 coronal mass ejection to arrive after midday UTC tomorrow, Monday 11 October while the European SIDC goes with an impact time of 20 UTC or later. We go along with the SIDC and think an arrival time during the UTC evening hours before midnight seems very reasonable. A moderate G2 geomagnetic storm watch (Kp6) has been issued by the SWPC and is in effect for tomorrow, 11 October with a minor G1 geomagnetic storm watch (Kp5) being in effect for Tuesday, 12 October. Under optimal conditions, aurora might become visible from latitudes like Tasmania in Australia, Scotland, southern Sweden and the Baltic states. The northern states in the USA should also stay alert as they approach nightfall in case we do get the expected geomagnetic storm conditions. The coronal mass ejection passage could be followed by the onset of a coronal hole solar wind stream so we are in for a couple of interesting days early next week!

The NOAA SWPC expects the M1.6 CME to arrive after midday tomorrow, Monday 11 October.

A moderate G2 (Kp6) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for tomorrow evening. CME effects should persist into Tuesday, 12 October and could be followed by the onset of a coronal hole stream. pic.twitter.com/Fw5CAQeRV1

— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) October 10, 2021