M6.3 flare, double CME impact expected

Sunday, 26 February 2023 11:16 UTC

LASCO imagery reveal an asymmetrical halo coronal mass ejection. Just like with the M3 solar flare, most of the ejecta is heading to the north-west but a good portion of the cloud should have an earth-directed component. The M3 coronal mass ejection is expected to arrive during within the next 12 to 24 hours (early 27 February). The coronal mass ejection from yesterday's M6.2 solar flare is slightly faster and should have a relatively clear path trough interplanetary space meaning it will not slow down too much. This coronal mass ejection could arrive slightly after the from the leading egde of the M3 coronal mass ejection passes Earth. An impact window late on 27 February for the M6.2 coronal mass ejection is reasonable. This means we will see the influences of two coronal mass ejections at the same time late tomorrow moving into 28 February. How will this pan out? Hard to say but we are in for at least two days of geomagnetic unrest where moderate G2 geomagnetic storm conditions seem likely, with a small chance of strong G3 geomagnetic storm conditions which would mean visible aurora from middle latitudes if all goes our way.

Yet another gorgeous eruption from region 3229 this time peaking at M6.3. This eruption is the source of the minor S1 radiation storm we are in right now. A CME has been launched which likely has an earth-directed component but we await more images before a final conclusion. pic.twitter.com/GgIR93uj9q

— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) February 25, 2023

Yesterday's M6.3 flare is also associated with an asymmetrical full halo coronal mass ejection. It is slightly faster than the M3 CME and should have a relatively clear path trough space meaning it wont slow down much. This CME is likely to arrive at Earth late on Monday, 27 Feb pic.twitter.com/4gOq9iFfaE

— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) February 26, 2023