Vaata pühapäev, 27 märts 2011 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 086 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 Mar 2011

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1176 (S15E02) produced a C3/Sf at 27/0014Z with discrete radio emissions. Associated with this event was a CME, first observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery at 27/0200Z and 27/0242Z respectively. The CME appeared as a narrow band extending east, as viewed in LASCO, and had an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 630 km/s. SDO/AIA 193 imagery indicated material movement in a wide band extending north through east with stronger movement in an easterly direction. Region 1176 showed little change during the period. At 27/0511Z, Type II (estimated shock velocity of 651 km/s) and Type IV radio signatures were observed. GOES13 and 15 were in eclipse phase, so GOES XRS data was not available. At 27/0512Z, limited GOES-15 SXI data indicated surging and material movement off the NE limb in the vicinity of new Region 1183 (N15E62). LASCO C2 (27/0536Z) and C3 (27/0606Z) imagery detected an asymmetric, partial-halo CME lifting off the NE limb with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 880 km/s. New Region 1183 rotated on as a large, 8-spot E-type group with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. New Region 1182 (N13E01) evolved on the disk as a single spot unipolar group. The remaining groups were quiet and stable during the period. At this time, neither CMEs observed on 27 March appeared to have an Earth-directed component. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and 90 day mean are estimated due to non-receipt of 27 Marchs flux reading.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next three days (28-30 March). A chance for M-class activity exists on day one (28 March) becoming likely on days two and three (29 - 30 March) with a slight chance for X-class activity on 29 - 30 March. This expected increase in activity is due to the complex nature of Regions 1176 and 1183 plus the return of old Regions 1166 (N10, L=110) on 28 March and 1169 (N17, L=078) on 30 March. On their last transit across the disk, these regions produced a total of six M-class events and one X-class event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind velocities were low, varying between 300 to 370 Km/s, while the Bz component of the IMF was generally north through a majority of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, on day one (28 March) due to possible effects from the 24 March CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for day two (29 March). By day three (30 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Markuni 30 Mar
Klass M50%60%70%
Klass X05%10%10%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       27 Mar 117
  Prognoositud   28 Mar-30 Mar  125/125/130
  90 päeva keskmine        27 Mar 097
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 Mar  001/001
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 27 Mar  001/001
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  010/010-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 Mar kuni 30 Mar
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%10%20%
Väike torm05%01%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%15%25%
Väike torm10%01%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

Kõik ajad UTC-s

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