Välja antud: 2013 Jan 11 1210 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
11 Jan 2013 | 174 | 001 |
12 Jan 2013 | 179 | 001 |
13 Jan 2013 | 184 | 001 |
The main driver of solar activity is likely to be NOAA AR 1654, which has produced several C flares in the past 24 hours, and a M1.2 flare, today, at 0911 UT (peak time). A metric type II burst was observed, and a CME was probably associated to it. At the time this message is prepared, coronagraphic observations do not allow to see if a CME has indeed occurred. Active conditions (M flare likely) are expected for the next 48 hours from this region, with a risk of an X class flare. Geomagnetic conditions might evolve quickly from quiet to active levels in the coming days if CMEs related to NOAA AR 1654 flares occur; which justifies issuing a warning condition.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 109, based on 08 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 185 |
10cm solar flux | 174 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | /// |
AK Wingst | 002 |
Estimated Ap | 002 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 101 - Based on 17 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Radio burst types | Catania/NOAA | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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