Välja antud: 2013 Jan 13 1212 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
13 Jan 2013 | 165 | 003 |
14 Jan 2013 | 165 | 001 |
15 Jan 2013 | 162 | 001 |
Solar activity is dominated by NOAA ARs 1652 and 1654, which both have the potential for M class flares in the coming 48 hours, with a small risk of an X class flare from AR 1654. Two M flares occurred on Jan. 13: a M1.0 flare, peaking at 00:50 UT, and a M1.7 flare, peaking at 08:38 UT, both in AR 1652. The second one was associated with a metric type II burst. Both flares were quite impulsive with no obvious CME signatures (but no LASCO observations are yet available for the second event). If this is confirmed, geomagnetic conditions should be mostly quiet during the next 48 hours, but due to the risk of a geoeffective CME, warning conditions are issued.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 07 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 169 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 008 |
AK Wingst | 004 |
Estimated Ap | 003 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 105 - Based on 15 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Radio burst types | Catania/NOAA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13 | 0045 | 0050 | 0052 | N18W18 | M1.0 | V/2,III/3 | 62/1652 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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