Välja antud: 2013 Oct 13 1220 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
13 Oct 2013 | 132 | 007 |
14 Oct 2013 | 132 | 014 |
15 Oct 2013 | 134 | 011 |
Active conditions are foreseen for the next 48 hours, with NOAA AR 1865 being the main candidate for an isolated M class flare, as well as, but to a lesser extent, AR 1861. An M1.7 flare occurred in AR 1865 on Oct. 13, 0043 UT (peak time). It was associated with a partial halo CME as observed from SOHO by LASCO. We expect the bulk of this CME to pass south of the Earth, but a partial hit is not excluded, with a possible arrival time on Oct. 16, around mid-day, triggering unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 24 hours, and then unsettled to active conditions by the end of Oct. 14, due a small coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Current interplanetary conditions are rather quiet, with weak Bz negative excursions, linked to a sector boundary crossing.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 094, based on 05 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 128 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 013 |
AK Wingst | 008 |
Estimated Ap | 007 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 080 - Based on 20 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13 | 0012 | 0043 | 0105 | S22E17 | M1.7 | SF | 05/1865 | VI/2II/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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