Välja antud: 2013 Oct 15 1244 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
15 Oct 2013 | 125 | 016 |
16 Oct 2013 | 123 | 013 |
17 Oct 2013 | 122 | 007 |
Solar activity has been moderate, many C-class flares were detected from AR 1865, 1861 and from an AR behind the east limb (related to a backsided partial halo CME on October 14 at 22:00 UT). NOAA AR 1865 produced an M1.1 flare with peak at 09:00 UT. There are clear dimmings as signs of a CME in SWAP and AIA data but no coronagraph images yet to confirm. Due to the location of this AR (S21 W16), an ejection has strong chances of being Earth-directed. As AR 1861 and 1865 are rotating into the western hemisphere of the Sun, the risk of proton events at Earth has increased, a warning condition has been set. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from unsettled to active due to the fast speed stream from a coronal hole. The solar wind speed is currently at 500 km/s and the magnetic field intensity around 5 nT. The effect of the coronal hole-related solar wind is expected to fade today, even though more active periods cannot be excluded. The possible arrival (estimated probability of 30%) of the CME from October 13 could raise the geomagnetic conditions up to storm levels late on October 16.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 095, based on 08 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 125 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 041 |
AK Wingst | 024 |
Estimated Ap | 023 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 096 - Based on 14 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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