Välja antud: 2013 Oct 16 1306 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
16 Oct 2013 | 125 | 012 |
17 Oct 2013 | 125 | 010 |
18 Oct 2013 | 124 | 007 |
Solar activity has been moderate, many C-class flares were detected from AR 1865, 1861. NOAA AR 1865 produced an M1.3 flare with peak time at 23:36 UT on October 15, no CME was associated with this flare. More M-class flares can be expected from these two active regions. The CME associated with the M1.8 flare from yesterday peaking at 08:38 UT is not expected to arrive to the Earth. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from quiet to unsettled due to the fast speed stream from a coronal hole. The solar wind speed is currently at 480 km/s and the magnetic field intensity around 4 nT. We expect quiet conditions, except for the possible arrival (estimated probability of 30%) of the CME from October 13 that could raise the geomagnetic conditions up to storm levels late today.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 092, based on 09 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 183 |
10cm solar flux | 125 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 022 |
AK Wingst | 021 |
Estimated Ap | 020 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 103 - Based on 16 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15 | 0826 | 0838 | 0848 | S22W13 | M1.8 | SN | 87 | 05/1865 | III/1 |
15 | 2331 | 2336 | 2341 | S23W20 | M1.3 | 1F | 05/1865 | III/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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