Välja antud: 2013 Nov 08 1218 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
08 Nov 2013 | 153 | 009 |
09 Nov 2013 | 154 | 004 |
10 Nov 2013 | 154 | 009 |
Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) keeps the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, although the delta-spot got somewhat weaker. Catania sunspot group 32 (NOAA AR 1891) is reported to have the beta-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, although the delta-spot seems to lose its penumbra during the M2.3 flare peaking at 09:28 UT in this active region today. We expect flaring activity on the M-level from these two active regions. An X-class flare is possible in the Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890), but it is not very likely. Due to the position of this group close to the solar central meridian, we issue a warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 390 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so in the coming hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 11 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 194 |
10cm solar flux | 148 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 018 |
AK Wingst | 010 |
Estimated Ap | 012 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 111 - Based on 14 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07 | 1415 | 1425 | 1431 | S13E23 | M2.4 | 1N | 170 | 35/1890 | II/1III/2IV/1 |
08 | 0420 | 0426 | 0429 | S14E15 | X1.1 | 2B | 1000 | 35/1890 | II/1III/3IV/2 |
08 | 0922 | 0928 | 0931 | S18W28 | M2.3 | 1B | 32/1891 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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