Vaata laupäev, 1 veebruar 2014 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2014 Feb 01 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 01 Feb 2014 until 03 Feb 2014
Päikesepursked ehk loited

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
01 Feb 2014168005
02 Feb 2014170021
03 Feb 2014172003

Bulletin

Numerous C- and 3 M-class flares were recorded over the last 24 hours, mostly originating from NOAA 1967. This region has three magnetic delta structures: two near the main spot, and one near the top of the region. The latter was the location of the strongest flare this period (M3 peaking at 07:23UT). One M-flare had NOAA 1968 as its source (M1 peaking at 15:42UT), which has developed more small spots of opposite polarity in its interior. This M1-flare was associated to a partial halo CME with a plane- of-sky speed of 460 km/s. The bulk of the CME was directed to the northeast. The x-ray background has been all day above the C1-level. Active conditions are expected to continue, with a chance on an X-class flare. Solar wind speed has been varying between 300 and 350 km/s and Bz fluctuating between -3 and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet. For the next 24 hours, active geomagnetic conditions with a slight chance on minor storm levels are expected, in particular due to the arrival of the M6 CME (30 January) which is currently foreseen for the morning of 2 February. On 4 February, Earth may receive a glancing blow from the partial halo CME that originated in NOAA 1968 (31 January).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 31 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux166
AK Chambon La Forêt003
AK Wingst001
Estimated Ap001
Estimated international sunspot number/// - Based on /// stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxLõppLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
31153215421553----M1.127/1968
01011901250138S11E26M1.01F28/1967
01071407230736S11E23M3.01B28/1967VI/2

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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