Välja antud: 2014 Jan 05 1227 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
05 Jan 2014 | 240 | 005 |
06 Jan 2014 | 250 | 006 |
07 Jan 2014 | 250 | 007 |
Two C flares and two M flares were measured by GOES during the past 24 hours. A long duration M4.0 flare occurred in the western part of NOAA AR 11944 on January 4 with peak time at 19:46 UT. An associated CME is mainly propagating southward, but more properties are difficult to determine due to a data gap in STEREO and LASCO imagery. NOAA AR 11944 continued to grow in size and number of sunspots. It currently has a beta- gamma-delta magnetic configuration of its photospheric field. A long duration M2.0 flare erupted on January 4 with peak time at 22:52 UT. The source region for this event is NOAA AR 11936, currently located at the west limb. A related CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and STEREO B coronagraphic imagery (first measurement in LASCO/C2 at 23:12 UT). Based on the current observations, the CME is mainly propagating in the northwest direction with an estimated projected speed of 520 km/s. A glancing blow might arrive at Earth on January 8 around 0:00 UT. The >10 MeV proton flux was enhanced during the past 12 hours, but remained below the threshold level. The flaring chances for the next 48 hours are high: 90% for C flares, 70% for M flares. There is also some chance for an X flare (20%). We maintain the warning condition for proton events. Current solar wind speed measured by ACE is around 450 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field remains around 4 to 6 nT. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K=0 to 2) to unsettled (K=3) (estimated NOAA Kp 1 to 2 and K_Izmiran 1 to 3). Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue for the next 48 hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 093, based on 13 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 215 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 008 |
AK Wingst | 006 |
Estimated Ap | 005 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 092 - Based on 08 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04 | 1905 | 1946 | 2023 | ---- | M4.0 | 550 | --/---- | VI/2IV/1 | |
04 | 2212 | 2252 | 2322 | ---- | M1.9 | --/1936 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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