Välja antud: 2014 Feb 26 1319 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
26 Feb 2014 | 176 | 007 |
27 Feb 2014 | 178 | 028 |
28 Feb 2014 | 178 | 025 |
Solar activity has calmed down since the X-class firework of yesterday. Flaring activity in the past 24 hours has been at the C5 level in active regions NOAA1986-Cat48 and NOAA1989-Cat50. For the first region, the activity corresponds to a (recurrently) activating filament which we expect to erupt at some stage. Major (M or X class flaring) flaring potential remains in various active regions, in particular NOAA1982-46, NOAA1987-Cat54 and NOAA1990-Cat52. The CME associated with the X4.9 flare of Feb 25 00:49 expanded to a full halo CME. Propagation speeds above 1500 km/s were measured. Culgoora Observatory observed type II radio bursts with speeds of 2000 km/s and 700 km/s. As this CME was not completely Earth-directed, we expect that only a glancing blow of the shock will arrive at the Earth, early Feb 27. Soon thereafter (Feb 28 late onwards) we also expect the influence of the fast wind stream from a small coronal hole that crossed central meridian mid Feb 24. As a consequence, we expect episodes of active geomagnetic conditions from early Feb 27 onwards for about 48 hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 141, based on 09 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 174 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 010 |
AK Wingst | 003 |
Estimated Ap | 004 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 125 - Based on 15 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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