Vaata neljapäev, 27 veebruar 2014 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2014 Feb 27 1116 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 27 Feb 2014 until 01 Mar 2014
Päikesepursked ehk loited

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

10cm fluxAp
27 Feb 2014180016
28 Feb 2014180019
01 Mar 2014180007

Bulletin

Given the large number of complex, active regions on the disk, solar activity has been moderate. The strongest flare was an M1.1 flare from NOAA AR 1982, now approaching the solar West limb. For the coming days, the largest chance for major flaring comes from active region NOAA1990-Cat52 and NOAA1991-Cat59. In particular NOAA1990-Cat52 (the source of the X4.9 flare of Feb 25) is now categorised as beta-delta and is slowly increasing in size. At the time of this writing, the expected shock from the CME following the X4.9 flare has not arrived yet. ACE measurement of low energy proton fluxes are rising since Feb 26 22:00, therefore suggesting the shock is near. We expect thus active geomagnetic conditions later today. They will continue into tomorrow Feb 28 as we expect the influence of the fast solar wind stream from a (small) coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 142, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania226
10cm solar flux178
AK Chambon La Forêt///
AK Wingst002
Estimated Ap003
Estimated international sunspot number155 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxLõppLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
26145215011510S13W44M1.11N46/1982III/2

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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