Välja antud: 2015 Apr 09 1233 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
09 Apr 2015 | 106 | 020 |
10 Apr 2015 | 106 | 013 |
11 Apr 2015 | 106 | 007 |
Beta-delta region NOAA AR 2320 released one M flare and one C flare during the past 24 hours. The M1.4 flare peaked at 14:43 UT on April 8 and was associated to a dimming. No corresponding CME was observed in LASCO imagery. In the next 24 hours, M flaring is possible, with a slight chance for an X flare, especially from AR 2320. A small shock in the solar wind was observed by ACE around 1:10 UT on April 9. Solar wind speed jumped from about 340 to 370 km/s, while the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) magnitude jumped from about 4 to 6 nT and the solar wind density from 3 to 8 particles/cc. This is possibly related to the arrival of the partial halo CME of April 4. A second shock in the solar wind was observed by ACE around 9:12 UT. Solar wind speed jumped from about 350 to 380 km/s, while the magnitude of the IMF jumped from about 6 to 10 nT. This is possibly related to a glancing blow from the CME of April 6. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions have been quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). There is a chance for active to minor storm geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4-5) on April 9 as a result of a glancing blow from the CME of April 6. Quiet to active geomagnetic activity is possible on April 10 and 11, as a new coronal hole high speed stream is expected to arrive near Earth.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 037, based on 17 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 044 |
10cm solar flux | 106 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 010 |
AK Wingst | 005 |
Estimated Ap | 004 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 033 - Based on 25 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08 | 1437 | 1443 | 1447 | S14W04 | M1.4 | 1B | 110 | 22/2320 | III/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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