Vaata neljapäev, 14 mai 2015 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2015 May 14 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 14 May 2015 until 16 May 2015
Päikesepursked ehk loited

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
14 May 2015153014
15 May 2015150015
16 May 2015148015

Bulletin

The eruption of a filament near NOAA 2345 was accompanied by the strongest flaring event of the period, a C9.2 flare peaking on 13 May at 18:18UT. Coronagraphic imagery indicates that the bulk of the coronal mass ejection (CME) was directed to the north and away from Earth. However, difference imagery (CACTus) shows the faint outline of an asymmetric halo CME having a plane-of-the-sky speed of about 240 km/s. Provided this is not from a backside event, an impact from the shock is possible on 18 May, but the geomagnetic effects are expected to be limited. NOAA 2339 produced 2 low-level C-class flares near its leading sunspots, while the other regions were quiet. The other observed CMEs had no earth-directed component.

Further C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an M-class flare.

Solar wind speed slowly undulated around 700 km/s as a result of the high speed stream (HSS) from the recurrent coronal hole. Bz-values were small and varied mostly between -6 and +4 nT. Only quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist, with a chance on a minor storming episode.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 121, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 13 May 2015

Wolf number Catania200
10cm solar flux157
AK Chambon La Forêt037
AK Wingst040
Estimated Ap042
Estimated international sunspot number122 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxLõppLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
Puuduvad

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

Kõik ajad UTC-s

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