Välja antud: 2015 May 15 1230 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10 cm vool | Ap | |
---|---|---|
15 May 2015 | 140 | 011 |
16 May 2015 | 138 | 012 |
17 May 2015 | 136 | 018 |
NOAA 2339 and 2342 were the only sunspot regions actively producing low-level C-class flares. NOAA 2339 was the source of the strongest flare of the period, a C4.8 peaking at 17:53UT. Some opposite polarity flux has emerged in its trailing section. NOAA 2342 produced two C2 flares peaking resp. at 14:08UT and 00:11UT, related to eruptive phases of the group filament. An active region is rounding the southeast solar limb and was responsible for a C1 flare (06:50UT). No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed.
Further C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an M-class flare.
Solar wind speed declined from its initial value near 700 km/s to its current 530 km/s as Earth is gradually exiting the high speed stream (HSS) from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (CH). Bz oscillated mostly between -4 and +4 nT. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed. A recurrent positive polarity CH is transiting the central meridian.
The arrival of the 13 May CME is expected late 17 - early 18 May, slightly preceding or nearly coinciding with the expected arrival of the HSS from the aforementioned positive CH. Until then, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance on an active episode.
Tänane hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv (ISN): 090, põhineb 17 jaamadel.
Catania Wolfi number | /// |
10cm päikesevoog | 145 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 017 |
AK Wingst | 010 |
Hinnanguline Ap | 011 |
Hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv | 119 - Põhineb 25 jaamal |
Päev | Algus | Maks | Lõpp | Lokatsioon | Tugevus | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Raadiosignaalipursete tüübid | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Andmed on esitanud Päikeseinfektide Andmeanalüüsi Keskus (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center)© - SIDC - Töötleb SpaceWeatherLive
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