Vaata laupäev, 19 september 2015 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2015 Sep 19 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 19 Sep 2015 until 21 Sep 2015
Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
19 Sep 2015104026
20 Sep 2015104026
21 Sep 2015102018

Bulletin

NOAA 2415 has lost its delta, but remains magnetically complex. No (zero) C-class flares were observed during the period. The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated to the long duration event on 18 September (C2.6 flare peaking at 06:31UT) was directed to the south of the ecliptic. A glancing blow can not be excluded and could arrive late on 20 or on 21 September.

C-class flares are expected, with a small chance on an M-class flare from NOAA 2415.

Solar wind speed varied mostly between 410 and 450 km/s. Around 03:00UT, a gradual change in solar wind temperature and Bz was observed, accompanied by a mild increase in density and, around 05:00UT, a change in the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field from away to towards the Sun. Bz varied between -8 and +7 nT, being predominantly negative between 05:00 and 09:00UT. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed in Dourbes, while the Kp-index reached minor storming during the 06-09UT interval. Further data are awaited to pinpoint the source of the observed disturbance.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected. Minor geomagnetic storming is still possible on 19 or on 20 September in response to the anticipated arrival of the solar wind stream of the positive transequatorial coronal hole. Late on 20 or on 21 September, the glancing blow of the 18 September CME may arrive at Earth, but currently only active geomagnetic conditions are expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 061, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Sep 2015

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux103
AK Chambon La Forêt026
AK Wingst012
Estimated Ap014
Estimated international sunspot number067 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxLõppLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
Puuduvad

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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