Välja antud: 2015 Sep 18 1230 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
Quiet
10 cm vool | Ap | |
---|---|---|
18 Sep 2015 | 109 | 026 |
19 Sep 2015 | 109 | 027 |
20 Sep 2015 | 109 | 015 |
NOAA 2415 remains magnetically complex, with a weakening delta but also with some new opposite polarity flux emerging in front (to the west) of the main spot. Ten C-class flares were observed, all produced by NOAA 2415. The strongest was a C6.7 peaking at 21:15UT. NOAA2419 showed some interaction with NOAA 2415 during/following a long duration C2.6 flare that started at 04:22UT and peaked at 06:31UT. Some coronal dimming to the west of NOAA 2415 was observed, as well as a Type II radio-burst. Standing-by coronagraphic imagery to evaluate the effects of the associated coronal mass ejection.
More C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an M-class flare from NOAA 2415.
Solar wind speed continued its gradual decline from its initial values near 460 km/s to its current 400 km/s. Bz varied between -6 and +4 nT, being predominantly negative after 21:00UT. The interplanetary magnetic field pointed mostly away from the Sun. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed, with active episodes around midnight observed in Dourbes.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected. Minor geomagnetic storming is possible late on 18 or on 19 September in response to the anticipated arrival of the high speed stream of a transequatorial coronal hole.
Tänane hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv (ISN): 069, põhineb 22 jaamadel.
Catania Wolfi number | 081 |
10cm päikesevoog | 107 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 014 |
AK Wingst | 014 |
Hinnanguline Ap | 014 |
Hinnanguline rahvusvaheline päikeselaikude arv | 068 - Põhineb 24 jaamal |
Päev | Algus | Maks | Lõpp | Lokatsioon | Tugevus | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Raadiosignaalipursete tüübid | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Andmed on esitanud Päikeseinfektide Andmeanalüüsi Keskus (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center)© - SIDC - Töötleb SpaceWeatherLive
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