Vaata laupäev, 22 august 2015 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2015 Aug 22 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 22 Aug 2015 until 24 Aug 2015
Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
22 Aug 2015115008
23 Aug 2015118010
24 Aug 2015122008

Bulletin

Solar activity remained enhanced over the past 24 hours, with Active Region (AR) 2403 (Macintosh:Dkc/Type:Beta-Gamma) showing continued flux emergence, and producing several C-class flares and two M-class flares; an M1.1 class flare on 2015-Aug-21 peaking at 20:34 UT, and an M1.2 flare on 2015-Aug-22 peaking at 06:49 UT. An earlier M1.4 class flare produced by AR 2403, peaking at 09:48 UT, had an associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Although there was evidence of a dimming on the Sun, the extent of the CME became apparent as LASCO observations became available. At the time the AR was located at S17E26, and the CME was largely directed to the south east, and is not expected to significantly interact with the Earth, the CME had a speed of 297 km/s, and if a small component was to reach the Earth it would be expected to arrive on 2015-Aug-26 at 07:00 UT. AR 2404 (Macintosh:Cro/Type:Beta) emerged yesterday and has shown some evidence of growth, but still remains small. No other evident Earth directed CMEs were produced in the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain active over the next 24 hours, with AR 2403 producing C-class flares with the possibility of M and X-class flares. The solar wind speed, as recorded by the ACE satellite, has been slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours, from roughly 460 km/s to 400 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, as recorded by the ACE satellite, has been around 5 nT, and the Bz component was largely fluctuating between -5 nT and +5 nT yesterday (2015-Aug-21) but has been largely negative over the past 10 hours, around -4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions varied between quiet and moderate over the past 24 hours, with the local (Dourbes) K-index reaching 3 and the NOAA K-index reaching 2. There is currently a small coronal hole located at S15W45 which may increase solar wind speeds. The low solar wind speed, combined with the low magnitude Southward Bz indicates that geomagnetic activity should be small with possible low level enhancements over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 069, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Aug 2015

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux110
AK Chambon La Forêt013
AK Wingst008
Estimated Ap007
Estimated international sunspot number077 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

21 0934 0948 1007 S17E26 M1.4 2B 73 ///2403 II/1 22 0639 0649 0659 S15E20 M1.2 1B 62 ///2403 II/2
DayBeginMaxLõppLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
21191020342050S12E26M1.11N--/2403III/1

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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