Välja antud: 2015 Aug 21 1230 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
21 Aug 2015 | 105 | 009 |
22 Aug 2015 | 106 | 008 |
23 Aug 2015 | 107 | 010 |
Solar activity has increased over the past 24 hours, with Active Region (AR) 2403 (Macintosh:Dkc/Type:Beta-Gamma) showing significant flux emergence, and producing two M-class flares; a M1.2 flare peaking at 02:18 UT and a M1.4 flare peaking at 09:50 UT. The Sun also produced two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs); a slow CME first observed from beyond the south west limb at 02:48 UT on 20-Aug-2015, and a more energetic event from beyond the the north east limb at 10:12 UT on 20-Aug-2015. Both are believed to be back-sided and will not interact with the Earth. No evident Earth directed CMEs were produced in the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain active over the next 24 hours, with AR 2403 producing C-class flares with the possibility of M and X-class flares. The solar wind speed has been slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours, from 500 km/s to 450 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength has been decreasing from 9 nT to 5 nT, and the Bz component has been fluctuating between -6 nT and +6 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions varied between quiet and active over the past 24 hours, with the local K index (Dourbes) reaching 3 and the Kp index (NOAA) reaching 4 yesterday (2015-Aug-20), these conditions were possibly caused by a coronal hole (CH) located in the north-west region of the sun. The solar wind speed and IMF strength, as recorded by ACE, have both been decreasing and the geomagnetic field is expected to exhibit quiet levels over the next 24 hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 079, based on 19 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 103 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 019 |
AK Wingst | 016 |
Estimated Ap | 017 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 064 - Based on 28 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
21 | 0156 | 0218 | 0237 | S16E39 | M1.2 | 1F | --/2403 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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