Välja antud: 2015 Sep 17 1231 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
17 Sep 2015 | 114 | 018 |
18 Sep 2015 | 116 | 029 |
19 Sep 2015 | 118 | 018 |
NOAA 2415 developed a small delta structure just south of its middle main spot. This resulted in 12 C-class flares and 1 M-class flare. Notable events were a C9.5 flare peaking at 03:03UT, and the M1.1 flare peaking at 09:40UT. The other 3 regions were quiet. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections have been observed.
More C-class flares are expected, with a reasonable chance on another M-class flare from NOAA 2415.
Solar wind speed fluctuated mostly between 440 and 490 km/s, and is currently near 460 km/s. Bz oscillated between -6 and +5 nT, with the interplanetary magnetic field pointing away from the Sun. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed, with active episodes around midnight.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected. Minor geomagnetic storming is possible on 18 and/or 19 September in response to the arrival of the high speed stream of a transequatorial coronal hole.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 10 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 093 |
10cm solar flux | 109 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | /// |
AK Wingst | 016 |
Estimated Ap | 014 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 078 - Based on 19 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17 | 0934 | 0940 | 0945 | S21W04 | M1.1 | SF | 31/2415 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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