Välja antud: 2015 Oct 14 1249 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
14 Oct 2015 | 098 | 021 |
15 Oct 2015 | 101 | 026 |
16 Oct 2015 | 104 | 034 |
Two C-class flares were recorded during the period, the strongest flare being an impulsive C9.5 flare from NOAA 2434, peaking at 14:11UT. Flaring activity then stalled, with no C-class flares observed since 15:00UT (13 October). NOAA 2434 is magnetically complex and displays a very bright trailing portion (in EUV), with only a few small sunspots. The other sunspot groups currently visible on the solar disk are quiet. No earth- directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed.
C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare from NOAA 2434.
Earth remains under the influence of the high speed wind stream (HSS) from the wide northern coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed varied mostly between 450 and 550 km/s, while Bz oscillated between -8 and +5 nT, displaying long periods of southward orientation. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed away from the Sun (positive). Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions were observed, with Kp reaching minor storm levels during the 00-03UT interval.
Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a continuing chance on minor geomagnetic storming episodes, in particular on 15-16 October when Earth is likely to pass through the HSS from the eastmost extension of the northern CH.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 056, based on 11 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 082 |
10cm solar flux | 096 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 035 |
AK Wingst | 027 |
Estimated Ap | 026 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 064 - Based on 15 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Lõpp | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Puuduvad |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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