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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2022 May 11 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 May 2022	118	004
12 May 2022	120	004
13 May 2022	121	004

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached high levels with a low X-class flare and plenty of low C-class flaring, mainly from active regions NOAA 3006 and NOAA 3007. The strongest activity was an impulsive X1.5-flare (start time 13:50 UTC, peak time 13:55 UTC, end time 13:59 UTC on May 10th), produced by NOAA AR 3006. The X-flare was preceded by a C4.7-class flare (peak time 13:47 UTC on May 10th), produced by region NOAA 3007. These two active regions have both significantly grown in size, increased their complexity and developed new sunspots over the past 24h. They are both now classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta and might be the source of M or X-class flaring within the next 24 hours. Active region NOAA 3004 has now fully rotated behind the west limb, together with regions NOAA 3005 and NOAA 3001. Two new active regions have emerged on the visible solar disk, namely around N15W15 and N18E42, but have so far remained simple and quiet. Some low flaring activity has been registered from behind the south-east limb and the related active region is expected to rotate onto the visible disk within the next 24h. The X-ray flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at moderate levels with probable M-class flaring and remaining chances for more X-class flares.

The slow filament eruption in the south-west quadrant observed around 10:30 UTC on May 10th was related to a coronal mass ejection (CME), which is currently estimated to miss the Earth. A south-east CME related to the X1.5 or the C4.7-class flaring was first observed in LASCO C2 data at 14:24 UTC on May 10th. A flank of this CME could reach the Earth in the night of May 13th. A partial halo CME first detected by LASCO C2 at 22:24 UTC on May 10th appears to be from over the east limb and is estimated to not be geo- effective. A further eastward CME from this morning is estimated to originate from behind the east limb. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements subject to flaring activity and related eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were mostly at background levels with a rather short-lived minor enhancement in the magnetic field strength registered around 13 UTC on May 10th, which could have indicated the expected minor glancing blow from the May 06th CME. The solar wind velocity remained very steady with values below 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly at background levels with a short-lived minor increase up to 10 nT. The Bz component was at background levels with values above -5 nT. The B field was entirely in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to reflect mostly background solar wind conditions over the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet with locally two hours of unsettled conditions registered over Belgium. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with minor chance for isolated unsettled periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 079, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 10 May 2022

Wolf number Catania	071
10cm solar flux	116
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	053 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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