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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2022 May 12 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 May 2022	133	007
13 May 2022	133	007
14 May 2022	133	010

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with four M-class flares and multiple low to high C-class flaring rom active regions NOAA 3007 and NOAA 3006, as well as from regions behind the east and behind the west limb. Three low M-class flares, including a pronounced M2.7-class flare (peak time 18:58 UTC on May 11th), were registered from behind the west limb, most probably originating from active region NOAA 3004. The strongest activity on disc was an M1.6-class flare (start time 16:35 UTC, peak time 16:49 UTC, end time 16:58 UTC on May 11th), produced by NOAA AR 3007. Further high C-class flaring was produced from the new active region at the east limb, which will rotate into view later today. Active region NOAA 3006 has slightly shrunk, decreased in complexity and is now classified as magnetic type beta. It has produced only few low C-class flaring over the past 24h. Active region NOAA 3007 (beta-gamma-delta) has grown further and is expected to remain the source of high C and M-class flaring. The new active regions in the southern hemisphere are now classified as NOAA 3008 (beta) and NOAA 3009 (beta). They have remained stable and inactive. The active region from the east limb is now rotating over the limb and is likely to be the source of further high C-class flaring and possible M-class flares. The X-ray flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at moderate levels with probable M-class flaring and some chances for X-class flaring.

A large prominence eruption was detected by LASCO C2 at 18:48 UTC on May 11th following M-class flaring from behind the west limb. The related coronal mass ejection (CME) is back-sided and not geo-effective. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The 10 MeV proton flux registered enhancements over the past 24 hours due to the M-class flaring and resulting CME from over the west limb last night. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below radiation storm threshold over the next 24 hours with possible further enhancements subject to flaring activity and related eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal to low levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered weak solar wind structure, resulting mostly in slightly enhanced magnetic field strength. The solar wind velocity remained low ranging between 265 km/s and 321 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 11 nT with a minimum Bz of -10 nT. The B field orientation was mostly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to reflect mostly background solar wind conditions over the next 24 hours with possible weak transients.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled due to prolonged periods with slightly enhanced negative Bz. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with isolated unsettled periods are expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 111, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 11 May 2022

Wolf number Catania	098
10cm solar flux	133
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	081 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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