Vaata esmaspäev, 30 detsember 2024 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2024 Dec 30 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Päikese prootonid

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Dec 2024	255	007
31 Dec 2024	250	019
01 Jan 2025	245	039

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at high levels over the past 24 hours with 2 X-class flares being recorded and multiple M-class flares. There are a total of 11 numbered sunspot groups on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active Region 3936) is the most complex with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and produced the largest flare, an X1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 3128), peaking on December 30 at 04:14 UTC. The second X-class flare was an X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3130), with peak time 04:31 UTC on December 30, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932). SIDC Sunspot Groups 346, 350, 351 and 352 (NOAA ARs 3933, 3938, 3939 and 3941, respectively) all produced M-class flaring activity over the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 346 is now about to rotate over the west solar limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and further X-class flares possible.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

The halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday, seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 06:12 UTC December 29 has been further analysed and is likely associated with the M2 flare (SIDC flare 3113) at 04:30 UTC December 29 associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939). An eruption and dimming can be seen in the south-east of the solar disk seen in SUVI 305 images around 05:00 UTC. This CME is deemed to be Earth directed with an estimated arrival time of late on December 31. A second faint partial halo CME directed to the east was also observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 18:12 UTC on December 29, associated with a on disk dimming and eruption visible in the south-east quadrant also near SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939) in SUVI 94 and 305 imagery. Although faint and difficult to analyse this CME is also determined to be Earth directed with an estimated arrival on January 01.

Päikesetuul

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 and 9 nT, with a minimum Bz of -7 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 330 km/s and 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched multiple times between the negative and positive sectors. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue to dominate on December 30, with an enhancement of the solar wind speed and magnetic field expected from late on December 31 due to the anticipated arrival of the CME observed on December 29.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions possible from late on December 31 due to the anticipated CME arrival.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. However, due to the number of complex regions on disk and the high flaring probability a possible proton event over the next days cannot be excluded.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 226, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Dec 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	255
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	265 - Based on 09 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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