Vaata pühapäev, 26 jaanuar 2025 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2025 Jan 26 1300 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Jan 2025	190	027
27 Jan 2025	189	010
28 Jan 2025	189	011

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C5.4 flare peaking at 17:27 UTC on Jan 25, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 346) of the flare had beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Groups 346 and 383 (NOAA AR 3961 and 3971) are the complex regions with its beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a chance of X-class flares.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

A coronal mass ejection (CME) has been first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 17:48 on Jan 25. This CME was associated with a C5.4 flare that peaked at 17:27 UTC on Jan 25, originated from the SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961, S11 W78). It has a projected width of about 110 deg and a projected speed of about 800 km/s (as measured by Cactus tool). It is not very probable that it will arrive to Earth. Another narrow CME was first observed in LASCO-C2 images starting around 01:25 UTC on Jan 26, which was associated with a filament eruption in the SE quadrant of the Sun. It has a projected width of about 60 deg and a projected speed of about 900 km/s (as measured by Cactus tool). With the bulk of the mass going strongly southward from the Sun-Earth line, this CME is also not expected to arrive at the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Päikesetuul

Earth is presently inside the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged from 300 km/s to 440 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 1 nT to 5 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -3 and 3 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours unless the coronal mass ejections that was observed lifting from the SW limb of the Sun on Jan 22 arrives late.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp 1 and K_BEL 1 to 2) both globally and locally. In the next 24 hours, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions (K 1 to 3), unless the coronal mass ejections that was observed lifting from the SW limb of the Sun on Jan 22 arrives late and enhances the geomagnetic conditions to active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961).

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. However, greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was slightly above the threshold level from 17:20 UTC to 22:40 UTC on Jan 25. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours, though crossing the threshold level cannot be excluded. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 108, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Jan 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	182
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	114 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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