Vaata kolmapäev, 15 jaanuar 2025 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2025 Jan 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Jan 2025	165	012
16 Jan 2025	170	021
17 Jan 2025	175	022

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a C6.3-flare, with peak time 08:56 UTC on Jan 15 2025, from SIDC Sunspot Group 346 NOAA AR 3961 (beta). There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 342 (NOAA AR 3959) is the most complex AR (beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Krooniauk

The large east-west elongated negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) is still crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth starting on Jan 16.

Päikesetuul

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind has gradually increased speeds around 520 km/s and is currently again around 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is stable to 8 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. Enhancements of the solar wind speed are expected in the next 24h, due to the potential arrival of the high-speed stream (HSS) associated with the coronal hole, which started to cross the central meridian on 13 Jan 2025.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally unsettled to active (Kp 4) and locally unsettled (K Bel 3). Quiet to active conditions with possible isolated minor geomagnetic storm levels are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and, even if a slight increase may be observed, it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 066, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Jan 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	078 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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