Vaata teisipäev, 11 veebruar 2025 arhiivi

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Välja antud: 2025 Feb 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Päikesepursked ehk loited

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Päikese prootonid

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Feb 2025	158	014
12 Feb 2025	157	013
13 Feb 2025	156	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with one M-class flare and four C-class flares. The largest flare was an M1.6 flare (SIDC Flare 3580) peaking at 05:35 UTC on February 11, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981, magnetic type beta-gamma). There are currently seven numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA AR 3981, magnetic type beta-gamma). SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA AR 3981) is currently rotating behind the west limb but may still exhibit flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 394 (NOAA AR 3985) has decayed into plage. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a chance for M-class flares.

Krooniaine massiline väljavool

A narrow Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 06:45 UTC on February 11, lifting off the east limb. It is most likely associated with a filament eruption near the east limb and it is not expected to impact the Earth. A faint CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 06:15 UTC on February 11, lifting off the west limb. It is most likely associated with the M1.6 flare (SIDC Flare 3580) peaking at 05:35 UTC on February 11 and a prominence eruption near SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981). It is not expected to impact the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Krooniauk

The southern, low-latitude, negative-polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) is still crossing the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from UTC midday on February 12.

Päikesetuul

The solar wind conditions (ACE & DSCOVR) were enhanced during the last 24 hours, still under the influence of the high-speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88). Speed values were between 520 km/s and 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 3 nT and 8 nT. The Bz component varied between -7 nT and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24-48 hours, pending the arrival of a high-speed stream from the southern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87).

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally were at unsettled to active levels (NOAA Kp 3 to 4) in the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached active levels (K BEL 4) between 20:00 UTC on February 10 and 02:00 UTC on February 11. Mostly unsettled to active conditions, with a small chance of minor storm intervals are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was above the threshold level between 18:00 UTC on February 10 and 00:00 UTC on February 11. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was enhanced but remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 082, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Feb 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	032
Estimated Ap	030
Estimated international sunspot number	099 - Based on 07 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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