Visualizzazione archivio di sabato, 29 dicembre AM
Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 2001 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Preparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.comRapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
SDF Numero 363 Emesso alle 2200Z il Dec 29 2001
IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-28 alle 2100Z-29
Solar activity was high. The long duration X-flare,
which was in progress at the beginning of the period, ended at
29/2132 UTC. This impressive X3.4 east limb event (located near
S23) was accompanied by a 1600 sfu tenflare, type-II radio sweeps,
and bright post-flare loops visible in H-alpha and EIT imagery for
several hours following the event. A large CME was also evident in
LASCO imagery, with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity reported at
2170 km/s. Other activity included a west limb CME, with an M9.3
x-ray enhancement peaking at 29/0945 UTC, and associated type-II and
type-IV radio sweeps. An associated subfaint optical flare was also
observed from Region 9748 (S11W90), but is presumed to be only a
sympathetic indicator of the bulk of the activity from an apparent
nearby source region behind the west limb. Several other M-class
flares occurred throughout the period, though most were optically
uncorrelated and presumed to be from limb sources, except for an
M1/1f from Region 9751 (N04W38) at 29/0545 UTC.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to persist
at moderate to high levels for the next three days.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-28 alle 2100Z-29
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An L1 shock passage was
observed at approximately 29/0440 UTC, and followed by a sudden
impulse of 44 nT at 29/0538 UTC. Predominantly northward IMF
orientation following the shock passage mostly mitigated the
potential geomagnetic response to this event, presumed to have
originated from the CME activity of 26 December. The 10 MeV
integral proton flux at geosynchronous orbit followed a slow rising
trend shortly after the end of the east limb X-flare, and exceeded
event threshold at 29/0510 UTC. Further enhancement in possible
association with the shock passage resulted in a peak flux
observation of 76 pfu at 29/0815 UTC, and the event remains in
progress.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next 24-48 hours.
Increased activity with possible minor storming is expected on 31
December and 1 January, due to model predictions of a trailing flank
shock passage from the east limb X-flare event discussed in section
1A above.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle Dec del 30 alle Jan del 01
Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Protone | 20% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 29 Dec 264
Previsto 30 Dec-01 Jan 255/255/250
Media di 90 Giorni 29 Dec 218
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
Osservato Afr/Ap 28 Dec 009/005
Stimato Afr/Ap 29 Dec 013/011
Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 010/008-015/015-020/020
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 30 Dec al 01 Jan
A. Latitudini Medie |
Attivo | 15% | 20% | 30% |
Tempesta minore | 05% | 10% | 15% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 02% | 02% | 05% |
B. Latitudini Alte |
Attivo | 15% | 25% | 35% |
Tempesta minore | 05% | 10% | 20% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 01% | 01% | 05% |
Tutti gli orari in UTC
<< Vai alla pagina della panoramica giornaliera