Visualizzazione archivio di domenica, 30 dicembre AM
Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 2001 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Preparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.comRapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
SDF Numero 364 Emesso alle 2200Z il Dec 30 2001
IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-29 alle 2100Z-30
Solar activity has been moderate. Early in the period,
newly numbered Region 9767 (S23E73) produced an M2/1f event at
29/2256 UTC. This region is the likely source of the X-class flare
and CME activity of 28 December, and has now rotated into view. The
region appears to be of significant size and magnetic complexity,
but is current location near the east limb prevents a full analysis
of it's characteristics. Other activity during the same period
included a long duration M1 x-ray enhancement during 29/1950-2355
UTC, with an associated west limb CME evident in LASCO imagery,
though appearing to lack any significant earth-directed component.
Other regions on the visible disk were mostly quiescent, with a few
minor C-class events observed. An additional new region was also
numbered today, Region 9766 (N05E62).
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to continue
at predominantly moderate levels, with a fair chance for isolated
major flare events during the next three days.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-29 alle 2100Z-30
Geomagnetic field activity has been quiet to active. Most of the
period was dominated by ongoing effects from yesterday's shock
passage, with an extended period of southward IMF producing active
conditions during 30/0300-0900 UTC. Late in the period, an
additional shock passage was observed at the ACE satellite at
30/1932 UTC, followed by a sudden impulse of 27 nT observed at
Boulder at 30/2010 UTC. This event is presumed to be an early
arrival of effects from the powerful X-class event of 28 December.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit has
fluctuated near the event threshold value of 10 pfu for most of the
day, though now appears to be undergoing some enhancement due to the
recent shock passage. As a result of near-threshold activity, a 10
MeV proton event has been in progress since 30/0245 UTC.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
With the arrival of the most
recent shock passage, geomagnetic field conditions are expected to
be unsettled to active, with minor storm conditions possible during
the first day of the forecast period. An enhancement of activity
due to additional shock effects are also possible within the first
two days, due to expected effects from the west limb CME of 29
December. Predominantly unsettled and quiet conditions are expected
thereafter as shock passage effects wane. The 10 MeV proton event
in progress is expected to end within the next 12-24 hours.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle Dec del 31 alle Jan del 02
Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Protone | 50% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 30 Dec 247
Previsto 31 Dec-02 Jan 250/250/245
Media di 90 Giorni 30 Dec 225
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
Osservato Afr/Ap 29 Dec 013/010
Stimato Afr/Ap 30 Dec 018/018
Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 020/020-015/015-012/010
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 31 Dec al 02 Jan
A. Latitudini Medie |
Attivo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
Tempesta minore | 20% | 10% | 05% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 05% | 01% | 01% |
B. Latitudini Alte |
Attivo | 35% | 25% | 15% |
Tempesta minore | 25% | 15% | 05% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 05% | 01% | 01% |
Tutti gli orari in UTC
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