Emesso: 2013 May 14 1301 UTC
Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
14 May 2013 | 150 | 007 |
15 May 2013 | 153 | 015 |
16 May 2013 | 156 | 007 |
NOAA AR 1748 rotated into view, it is still not possible to infer its magnetic configuration but it is a big region with mixed magnetic polarities. It produced two X-class flares in past 24h and can produce more. The first one was an X2.8 with peak at 16:05 UT on May 13, the second one an X3.2 at 01:11 UT today. Both were related to radio bursts and fast limb CMEs. The first CME has a speed of 1500 km/s in the LASCO C3 field of view (decelerated with respect to the 1800 km/s seen in C2), while the second one was travelling at 1900 km/s in LASCO C3 (accelerated from the 1600 km/s measured in C2). Due to the source region location right at the limb, we expect at most a shock arriving to the Earth early on May 15 (09:00 UT for the first one and 13:00 UT for the second one). There is also a CME from May 12 expected to arrive around the same time as the first CME from yesterday. The second X flare and corresponding CME produced also a rise on the proton flux, which is still below the threshold and seems stable for the moment. NOAA AR 1745 has also potential for M flares. High solar activity is expected for the next 48h. Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet. The possible arrival of a shock from the two halo CMEs and a mild fast speed stream from a coronal hole may increase conditions to active and possible minor storm levels in the next 48h.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 106, based on 14 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 147 |
10cm solar flux | 150 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 007 |
AK Wingst | 006 |
Estimated Ap | 005 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 097 - Based on 15 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Radio burst types | Catania/NOAA | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nessuna |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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