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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2013 May 15 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 May 2013	150	017
16 May 2013	152	014
17 May 2013	153	011

Bulletin

A class X1.2 solar flare occurred today with peak time 01:48 UT, from NOAA AR 1748 which has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. It was associated with radio bursts and an increase of GOES proton flux levels, now at 5 protons/cm2-s-sr, the threshold of 10 protons/cm2-s-sr will likely be reached soon (at >=10 MeV). The increases in proton flux likely come from the CME driven shock. If the strong flares from this AR continue, the proton increases will likely be more abrupt when the magnetic connection between the flare site and the Earth is better (i.e. when the AR is in the western hemisphere). A CME was associated with the event, a shock and glancing blow can probably be expected at the Earth late on May 16 (CME speed 1700 km/s in LASCO C2). Geomagnetic conditions are quiet, but ACE data shows a disturbance starting this morning, with currently magnetic intensity close to 15 nT (northwards, so no geomagnetic effect). There is not enough data yet to discern clearly its cause, but it is likely related to the CME on May 12 (and possibly those from the two previous days related to X-flares from NOAA AR 1748). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active, with possible isolated minor storm periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 099, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 14 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	176
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	102 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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