Emesso: 2014 Jul 11 1242 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
11 Jul 2014 | 170 | 015 |
12 Jul 2014 | 160 | 011 |
13 Jul 2014 | 155 | 014 |
Two C-class and one M-class flares were observed in the past 24 hours. A C7.4 flare originated from Catania sunspot region 16 (NOAA AR 2113) peaking at 21:13 UT on July 10, almost immediately followed by an impulsive M1.5 flare from Catania sunspot region 5 (NOAA AR 2106). The CME of July 10 has further extended to an asymmetric halo CME, but is propagating mainly west of the Sun-Earth line. No additional Earth- affecting CMEs were identified. Flaring activity is expected to continue at the level of C-class flares, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. Solar wind speed is near 400 km/s, as measured by ACE. The magnitude of interplanetary magnetic field was stable with values near 5 nT with a Bz component fluctuating between -4 and +4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled and are expected to remain so till the possible arrival of a glancing blow July 8 CME. Active conditions are expected on the UT evening of July 11. Active conditions are also possible on the UT morning of July 13, due to the arrival of a glancing blow of the July 9 CME.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 112, based on 09 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 177 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 009 |
AK Wingst | 008 |
Estimated Ap | 009 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 124 - Based on 17 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 | 2229 | 2234 | 2237 | ---- | M1.5 | 05/2106 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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