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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Oct 21 1342 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 21 Oct 2014 until 23 Oct 2014
Brillamenti solari

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

10cm fluxAp
21 Oct 2014190012
22 Oct 2014193012
23 Oct 2014195013

Bulletin

Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) continues to grow and maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It produced four M-class flares in the past 24 hours, the strongest of them being the M4.5 flare peaking at 16:37 UT. We expect flaring activity mostly on the M-level in this group, with a good chance for an X-class flare. As the Catania sunspot group 88 approaches the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. An active region at the north-east limb (no sunspots are still visible) produced several flares including the C6.3 flare peaking at 10:58 UT today. It may produce an isolated M-class flare as well. A weak partial halo CME (angular width around 200 degrees) was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 19:12 UT on October 20. The CME was very weak and disappeared before reaching the LASCO C3 field of view, so we do not expect it to arrive at the Earth. The source region of the CME is the eruption in the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) and in the region to the south-west of it, starting around 18:40 UT, accompanied with coronal dimmings and the M1.4 flare peaking at 19:02 UT. The solar wind speed is currently high (around 640 km/s) and the interplanetary magnetic filed (IMF) magnitude is around 7 nT. Due to elevated values of the IMF magnitude and predominantly southward IMF direction, the K index reached 5 during one interval yesterday evening (according to Dourbes, IZMIRAN, and NOAA). Currently the north-south IMF component Bz is fluctuating around zero, so we expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K < 4) in the coming hours, possibly with isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 078, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania171
10cm solar flux185
AK Chambon La Forêt041
AK Wingst028
Estimated Ap031
Estimated international sunspot number085 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
20160016371655S14E37M4.52N19088/2192
20185519021904----M1.412088/2192
20195320042013----M1.788/2192
20224322552313S14E36M1.21N88/2192

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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