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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Oct 22 1246 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 22 Oct 2014 until 24 Oct 2014
Brillamenti solari

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

10cm fluxAp
22 Oct 2014204011
23 Oct 2014208011
24 Oct 2014210011

Bulletin

Three M-class flares were detected in the past 24 hours, all of them produced by the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). The strongest flare was the M8.7 flare peaking at 01:59 UT. Based on the still incomplete SOHO/LASCO data and the absence of conspicuous eruptive signatures in the SDO/AIA data, we conclude that there was no CME associated with this flare. We expect flaring activity mostly on the M-level in this group, with a good chance for an X-class flare. As the Catania sunspot group 88 approaches the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 460 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 095, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania151
10cm solar flux199
AK Chambon La Forêt028
AK Wingst017
Estimated Ap017
Estimated international sunspot number082 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
21133513381340----M1.2510--/----III/2II/2
22011601590228----M8.758088/2192IV/1
22051105170521----M2.788/2192

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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