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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Oct 24 1256 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 24 Oct 2014 until 26 Oct 2014
Brillamenti solari

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

10cm fluxAp
24 Oct 2014226010
25 Oct 2014231011
26 Oct 2014237011

Bulletin

Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) continues to grow and maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The strongest flare it produced during the past 24 hours was the M4.0 flare peaking at 07:48 UT today. This flare was accompanied only with a narrow CME that is not expected to arrive at the Earth. We expect the flaring activity up to X-level from this sunspot group. As the Catania sunspot group 88 is currently situated close to the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. A long filament in the northern hemisphere is approaching the solar central meridian. Its possible eruption may lead to an Earth-directed CME. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 430 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 6 nT) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so, with isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4) possible but unlikely.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 106, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux///
AK Chambon La Forêt///
AK Wingst///
Estimated Ap///
Estimated international sunspot number093 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
24073707480753----M4.015088/2192V/2

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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