Emesso: 2014 Oct 24 1256 UTC
Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
24 Oct 2014 | 226 | 010 |
25 Oct 2014 | 231 | 011 |
26 Oct 2014 | 237 | 011 |
Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) continues to grow and maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The strongest flare it produced during the past 24 hours was the M4.0 flare peaking at 07:48 UT today. This flare was accompanied only with a narrow CME that is not expected to arrive at the Earth. We expect the flaring activity up to X-level from this sunspot group. As the Catania sunspot group 88 is currently situated close to the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. A long filament in the northern hemisphere is approaching the solar central meridian. Its possible eruption may lead to an Earth-directed CME. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 430 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 6 nT) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so, with isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4) possible but unlikely.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 106, based on 08 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | /// |
AK Chambon La Forêt | /// |
AK Wingst | /// |
Estimated Ap | /// |
Estimated international sunspot number | 093 - Based on 10 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 | 0737 | 0748 | 0753 | ---- | M4.0 | 150 | 88/2192 | V/2 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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