Emesso: 2014 Oct 25 1255 UTC
Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
25 Oct 2014 | 216 | 013 |
26 Oct 2014 | 211 | 012 |
27 Oct 2014 | 210 | 012 |
The strongest flare observed on the Sun during the past 24 hours was the X3.1 flare peaking at 21:41 UT yesterday in the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). SOHO/LASCO data demonstrate that the flare was accompanied only with a very weak and narrow CME. No geomagnetic consequences are expected. Despite the decrease in the area of the Catania sunspot group 88, it maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, so we expect the flaring activity up to X-level from this sunspot group. As the Catania sunspot group 88 is currently situated close to the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. A long filament in the northern hemisphere is now crossing the solar central meridian. Its possible eruption may lead to an Earth-directed CME. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 390 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 07 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | /// |
AK Chambon La Forêt | /// |
AK Wingst | /// |
Estimated Ap | /// |
Estimated international sunspot number | 104 - Based on 14 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 | 2107 | 2141 | 2213 | S16W21 | X3.1 | 3B | 210 | 88/2192 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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